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The possible influence of global climate changes on agricultural production is becoming increasingly significant, necessitating greater attention to improving agricultural production in response to temperature rises and precipitation variability. As one of the main winter wheat-producing areas in China, the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of precipitation, accumulated temperature, and actual yield and climatic yield of winter wheat during the growing period in Shanxi Province were analysed in detail. With the utilisation of daily meteorological data collected from 12 meteorological stations in Shanxi Province in 1964–2018, our study analysed the change in winter wheat yield with climate change using GIS combined with wavelet analysis. The results show the following: (1) Accumulated temperature and precipitation are the two most important limiting factors among the main physical factors that impact yield. Based on the analysis of the ArcGIS geographical detector, the correlation between the actual yield of winter wheat and the precipitation during the growth period was the highest, reaching 0.469, and the meteorological yield and accumulated temperature during this period also reached its peak value of 0.376. (2) The regions with more suitable precipitation and accumulated temperature during the growth period of winter wheat in the study area had relatively high actual winter wheat yields. Overall, the average actual yield of the entire region showed a significant increasing trend over time, with an upward trend of 47.827 kg ha−1 yr−1. (3) The variation coefficient of winter wheat climatic yield was relatively stable in 2008–2018. In particular, there were many years of continuous reduction in winter wheat yields prior to 2006. Thereafter, the impact of climate change on winter wheat yields became smaller. This study expands our understanding of the complex interactions between climate variables and crop yield but also provides practical recommendations for enhancing agricultural practices in this region 

Sugarcane croplands account for ~70% of global sugar production and ~60% of global ethanol production. Monitoring and predicting gross primary production (GPP) and transpiration (T) in these fields is crucial to improve crop yield estimation and management. While moderate-spatial-resolution (MSR, hundreds of meters) satellite images have been employed in several models to estimate GPP and T, the potential of high-spatial-resolution (HSR, tens of meters) imagery has been considered in only a few publications, and it is underexplored in sugarcane fields. Our study evaluated the efficacy of MSR and HSR satellite images in predicting daily GPP and T for sugarcane plantations at two sites equipped with eddy flux towers: Louisiana, USA (subtropical climate) and Sao Paulo, Brazil (tropical climate). We employed the Vegetation Photosynthesis Model (VPM) and Vegetation Transpiration Model (VTM) with C4 photosynthesis pathway, integrating vegetation index data derived from satellite images and on-ground weather data, to calculate daily GPP and T. The seasonal dynamics of vegetation indices from both MSR images (MODIS sensor, 500 m) and HSR images (Landsat, 30 m; Sentinel-2, 10 m) tracked well with the GPP seasonality from the EC flux towers. The enhanced vegetation index (EVI) from the HSR images had a stronger correlation with the tower-based GPP. Our findings underscored the potential of HSR imagery for estimating GPP and T in smaller sugarcane plantations.

 

Urban vegetation experiences multiple natural and human impacts during urbanization, including land conversion, local environmental factors, and human management, which may bring positive or negative impacts on vegetation gross primary productivity (GPP) at multiple scales. In this study, we analyzed the spatial-temporal changes of GPP and three urbanization factors: land urbanization (impervious surface coverage), population urbanization (Population), and economic urbanization Gross domestic product (GDP) at city-district-grid scales in Beijing during 2000–2018. Overall, both GPP and three urbanization factors showed an increased trend. The relationships between GPP and urbanization factors exhibit diverse characteristics at multiple scales: unlike the linear relationship observed at city scale, the relationships at district and grid scales all demonstrated nonlinear relationship, even a U shape between GPP and population/GDP. Furthermore, the positive impact of urbanization on GPP increased and offset the negative impact of land conversion from 9.9% in 2000 to 35% in 2018, indicating that urban management and climate during urbanization effectively promote vegetation photosynthesis and neutralize the negative impact of urban area expansion. Our findings highlight the increased growth offset by urbanization on vegetation and the importance of analysis at a finer scale. Understanding these urbanization types’ impact on vegetation is pivotal in formulating comprehensive strategies that foster sustainable urban development and preserve ecological balance.

 

Wild waterbirds, and especially wild waterfowl, are considered to be a reservoir for avian influenza viruses, with transmission likely occurring at the agricultural-wildlife interface. In the past few decades, avian influenza has repeatedly emerged in China along the East Asian-Australasian Flyway (EAAF), where extensive habitat conversion has occurred. Rapid environmental changes in the EAAF, especially distributional changes in rice paddy agriculture, have the potential to affect both the movements of wild migratory birds and the likelihood of spillover at the agricultural-wildlife interface. To begin to understand the potential implications such changes may have on waterfowl and disease transmission risk, we created dynamic Brownian Bridge Movement Models (dBBMM) based on waterfowl telemetry data. We used these dBBMM models to create hypothetical scenarios that would predict likely changes in waterfowl distribution relative to recent changes in rice distribution quantified through remote sensing. Our models examined a range of responses in which increased availability of rice paddies would drive increased use by waterfowl and decreased availability would result in decreased use, predicted from empirical data. Results from our scenarios suggested that in southeast China, relatively small decreases in rice agriculture could lead to dramatic loss of stopover habitat, and in northeast China, increases in rice paddies should provide new areas that can be used by waterfowl. Finally, we explored the implications of how such scenarios of changing waterfowl distribution may affect the potential for avian influenza transmission. Our results provide advance understanding of changing disease transmission threats by incorporating real-world data that predicts differences in habitat utilization by migratory birds over time.